Canucks over-adjusted to Nashville's shot-blocking strategy

Bob Frid/USA TODAY Sports

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It’s been the story of the series.

The Vancouver Canucks aren’t just having trouble putting pucks on net, they’re also flirting with historically low levels of shots on goal. Just one team in NHL playoff history has put fewer pucks on net than the Canucks have in their first five games against the Nashville Predators.

The Canucks are averaging a league-worst 18.4 shots on goal per game in the playoffs, which is a full six shots lower than the Predators, who are ranked second last. And they’re miles back of the Colorado Avalanche, who averaged 37 shots per game in their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets.

So, what gives?

The most shots on goal the Canucks have mustered this series came in Game 5 when they put just 22 pucks at Preds goalie Juuse Saros. That’s progress, believe it or not, particularly compared to how Game 2 (18 shots) and Game 3 (12 shots) went.

It does seem like the Canucks were rattled by Nashville’s incredible dedication to blocking shots in Game 2. The Canucks directed a series-high 84 shots towards the Predators goal that night, but 33 of them were blocked, and another 33 missed the net.

Nashville blocked just 12 shots in Game 3 and 11 shots in Game 4, but that has a lot to do with the fact that Vancouver had far fewer attempts.

Here’s a look at Canucks shot attempts in the series so far:

Game 1 (55 attempts): 21 shots, 14 blocked, 20 missed
Game 2 (84 attempts): 18 shots, 33 blocked, 33 missed
Game 3 (33 attempts): 12 shots, 12 blocked, nine missed
Game 4 (46 attempts): 21 shots, 11 blocked, 14 missed
Game 5 (57 attempts): 22 shots, 21 blocked, 14 missed

The Canucks have been passing up shots, but part of that is by design. They’ve placed emphasis on indirect shots to counteract the Predators’ defensive scheme.

J.T. Miller utilized this strategy late in Game 4, which led to Brock Boeser’s game-tying goal. Rather than shoot to score, he was looking for Boeser’s stick. It worked, as Roman Josi sprawled to the ice in anticipation of a Miller shot, only to have the puck slide by him.

HAT TRICK BROCK BOESER. WE ARE HEADED TO OVERTIME! 🤯

📺: Sportsnet
📲: Stream on Sportsnet+ pic.twitter.com/aKh8E49v6K

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 29, 2024

“The concept is, if they’re coming out blocking shots, you need a second stick,” Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet explained during Thursday’s press conference.

But perhaps they over-adjusted.

“Yeah, I think we’ve gone overboard on that,” Tocchet admitted.

“You give players a concept, but then they gotta act in the moment. You see a McDonagh coming out, he’s taking the weak side, I’m not sure you wanna do a shot-pass there, now’s the time to let it rip.”

Despite scoring just 12 goals in five games, with only seven coming at five-on-five, Tocchet has been reluctant to shake up his lines.

“I still think we can get more shots and more offence if we do some of the stuff that we’re talking about,” he said. “We have some matchups I think that if we stick with, we might be able to expose them. That’s just my opinion. But that doesn’t mean I can’t shuffle the deck every once and a while in-game.”

Part of the reason Tocchet’s sticking with the same lineup also has to do with the terrific job Vancouver has done at limiting Nashville’s chances. Despite the low shot total in Game 5, Vancouver held a 13-5 edge in high-danger chances.

“I just don’t want to start being drastic and moving people around. We’re not giving much either. That’s the one thing. It’s not like they’re getting a ton of chances. If we just take care of our end, maybe get a little more offensive… even being more creative.”

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